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Sunday, September 28, 2008

Financial Sense on Gold

Золото - не обязательно currency of last resort:
What the good folk of Totnes did is they just opted out of the UK’s financial system – to the extent that it affected trade between themselves – and they just went ahead and created their own currency out of thin air. The key determinant of success, of course, was a willingness to abide by some self imposed rules. And when you are prepared to do that, then you can use anything you like as the backing for your currency. The issues devolve to “trust” and “mutual respect”. In this particular case, the backing to the Totnes Pound is paper. Ah yes, the paper happens to be British Pounds – but it didn’t have to be. The good people of the town of Lewes are investigating an alternative option. You see, they don’t know that it’s impossible. And, not to be outdone, the good people of Totnes are now contemplating the possibility that they may create their own energy and use that as a backing for the Totnes pound.


Бумага - тем более не деньги, потому что их просто создать (money must be scarce):
That gold continued to be a store of value post gold standard was unexpected by many economists. In the early 1970s, when the dollar's link to gold was cut, economist Milton Friedman predicted that the price of gold would collapse.[4] The Nobel laureate believed that the gold derived its value from its relationship with the dollar; without gold backing, there would be far less demand for gold. There would, of course, continue to be industrial demand for the metal, but without monetary demand provided by the dollar, the vast supply that had been accumulated during the preceding centuries would overhand the market, depressing the gold price for the foreseeable future. Friedman could not have been more wrong. It was the dollar that collapsed in the 1970s, while the gold price in dollars began a bull run that was not eclipsed in nominal terms until late last year.


Опять-таки, рынки металлов тоньше валютных рынков (суточные торги золота - $26 billion, серебра - $4.5 billion, валюта $3.2 trillion), потому стоит приготовиться к волатильности и крепко попридержать азарт.
That’s because, as wild as things have been in pretty much all the markets, we haven’t seen anything yet. If there is one thing you can take to the bank, it is that, in the months just ahead, the volatility of virtually all markets is going to go ballistic. For the attentive trader, that can mean big, and repeated, opportunities for profit. But for the casual trader, high volatility can lead to quick loss making.

Sticking to a longer-term perspective – buying and holding and, if resources allow, buying more on the dips – is the way to go.

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